How One Pollster Found the Hidden Trump Vote
RUSH: Other things in the news: "The Democratic Party Establishment Is Finished." This is... It looks like it is... It's Slate.com. "The Democratic Party Establishment Is Finished." From The Politico: "How Could the Polling Be So Wrong?" How could it be so wrong? It's very simple how it could be so wrong: Prejudice and bias on the part of the people that do the polling! It was very clearing during this entire campaign that the people who were voting for Donald Trump were mocked and impugned and laughed at and not taken seriously.
They were stereotyped. The pollsters said (snicker), "We don't need to poll those people. They're not even educated!" It was classic bubble existence. From TheHill.com: "Pollsters Suffer Huge Embarrassment -- Pollsters and election modelers suffered an industry-shattering embarrassment at the hands of Donald Trump on Tuesday night. Trump had long said the polls were biased against him. His claims turned out to be true," and this is an admission from a site that mocked and made fun of the Trump for his claims as much as any.
There is one pollster out of all of them, however... The LA Times poll was right and the TIPP poll was right. But there's another pollster here named Robert Cahaly, who's the CEO of a polling group called Trafalgar. You haven't heard much about Trafalgar, but they were right on the money on this. You know why? They found a way in their poll to uncover and detect the silent Trump supporter. They found the people who were telling pollsters they would never vote for Trump who intended to. They found the people on "the margin of shame," I call it.
These are the people that wouldn't tell the pollsters what they're doing 'cause they didn't want the pollsters judging them or mocking them or what have you. And Mr. Cahaly said all it took was one question to find them. All I had to do was devise one question, and that question exposed all of the hidden support for Trump and it never exposed any hidden support for Hillary. And that would have happened if there was a bipartisan and equal reluctance to reveal voting preference, but people voting for Hillary fully were open and honest about it to pollsters.
The trick here is a lot of people who voted for Trump would never tell the pollster. Mr. Cahaly here, Trafalgar, found a way to uncover those people. And his question is very simple. His question probes for hidden preferences by asking people who their neighbors are supporting. After asking people who they are supporting, he then asked, "Well, what about your neighbors? Do you know how they're voting?"
And when they answered Trump in a preponderance of times and so forth, Mr. Cahaly said that after a series of polls asking this question we were confident that we had found the undercover or undeveloped Trump voter. Cahaly said on Wednesday, meaning today, "I’m either going to be the guy who got it right, or nobody is going to listen to me anymore. That's why I take this craft, polling, seriously."
He said his polls "are designed to capture opinions from people who otherwise avoid lengthy interviews on the phone. That’s difficult under normal circumstances, but it is especially difficult when many people are reluctant to pick a side," and tell the pollster about it.
"He keeps his questionnaires limited to a minute or two, relies mostly on computer-delivered phone questionnaires and he probes for hidden preferences by asking people who their neighbors are supporting. That question about neighbors allows respondents to present their preferences as the opinion of others, so minimizing possible fear of stigma or embarrassment for supporting Trump."
Now, when they asked this guy, Mr. Cahaly at Trafalgar, about the reliability of a hidden vote, he offered several arguments for its existence. "He says the people most likely to hide their votes are women and college-educated professionals. ... Whenever he asks the neighbors question, the answers consistently show a hidden vote for Trump worth three to nine points."
You might say it's a trick question. This guy called Pennsylvania, he called Michigan, he called a number of states correctly. I find it fascinating that his question produced that many of the people who were gonna vote Trump that wouldn't tell anybody, women and college-educated professionals,
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/11/the_democratic_party_establishment_is_finished_after_trump.html
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/how-could-polling-be-so-wrong-2016-231092
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/11/07/poll-trump-michigan-pennsylvania/
RUSH: Other things in the news: "The Democratic Party Establishment Is Finished." This is... It looks like it is... It's Slate.com. "The Democratic Party Establishment Is Finished." From The Politico: "How Could the Polling Be So Wrong?" How could it be so wrong? It's very simple how it could be so wrong: Prejudice and bias on the part of the people that do the polling! It was very clearing during this entire campaign that the people who were voting for Donald Trump were mocked and impugned and laughed at and not taken seriously.
They were stereotyped. The pollsters said (snicker), "We don't need to poll those people. They're not even educated!" It was classic bubble existence. From TheHill.com: "Pollsters Suffer Huge Embarrassment -- Pollsters and election modelers suffered an industry-shattering embarrassment at the hands of Donald Trump on Tuesday night. Trump had long said the polls were biased against him. His claims turned out to be true," and this is an admission from a site that mocked and made fun of the Trump for his claims as much as any.
There is one pollster out of all of them, however... The LA Times poll was right and the TIPP poll was right. But there's another pollster here named Robert Cahaly, who's the CEO of a polling group called Trafalgar. You haven't heard much about Trafalgar, but they were right on the money on this. You know why? They found a way in their poll to uncover and detect the silent Trump supporter. They found the people who were telling pollsters they would never vote for Trump who intended to. They found the people on "the margin of shame," I call it.
These are the people that wouldn't tell the pollsters what they're doing 'cause they didn't want the pollsters judging them or mocking them or what have you. And Mr. Cahaly said all it took was one question to find them. All I had to do was devise one question, and that question exposed all of the hidden support for Trump and it never exposed any hidden support for Hillary. And that would have happened if there was a bipartisan and equal reluctance to reveal voting preference, but people voting for Hillary fully were open and honest about it to pollsters.
The trick here is a lot of people who voted for Trump would never tell the pollster. Mr. Cahaly here, Trafalgar, found a way to uncover those people. And his question is very simple. His question probes for hidden preferences by asking people who their neighbors are supporting. After asking people who they are supporting, he then asked, "Well, what about your neighbors? Do you know how they're voting?"
And when they answered Trump in a preponderance of times and so forth, Mr. Cahaly said that after a series of polls asking this question we were confident that we had found the undercover or undeveloped Trump voter. Cahaly said on Wednesday, meaning today, "I’m either going to be the guy who got it right, or nobody is going to listen to me anymore. That's why I take this craft, polling, seriously."
He said his polls "are designed to capture opinions from people who otherwise avoid lengthy interviews on the phone. That’s difficult under normal circumstances, but it is especially difficult when many people are reluctant to pick a side," and tell the pollster about it.
"He keeps his questionnaires limited to a minute or two, relies mostly on computer-delivered phone questionnaires and he probes for hidden preferences by asking people who their neighbors are supporting. That question about neighbors allows respondents to present their preferences as the opinion of others, so minimizing possible fear of stigma or embarrassment for supporting Trump."
Now, when they asked this guy, Mr. Cahaly at Trafalgar, about the reliability of a hidden vote, he offered several arguments for its existence. "He says the people most likely to hide their votes are women and college-educated professionals. ... Whenever he asks the neighbors question, the answers consistently show a hidden vote for Trump worth three to nine points."
You might say it's a trick question. This guy called Pennsylvania, he called Michigan, he called a number of states correctly. I find it fascinating that his question produced that many of the people who were gonna vote Trump that wouldn't tell anybody, women and college-educated professionals,
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/11/the_democratic_party_establishment_is_finished_after_trump.html
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/how-could-polling-be-so-wrong-2016-231092
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/11/07/poll-trump-michigan-pennsylvania/